What will keep you up Friday night?

The Irish should beat Pittsburgh handily and without incident.  However. there is a reason they play the game.

Every team gets up to play Notre Dame and the Pitt Panthers are no exception.

Pittsburgh senior quarterback Tino Sunseri, who has not thrown an interception since September 15, has 143 pass attempts with a 69.2 completion percentage.   Sunseri has thrown only two interceptions all season with 13 touchdowns.

Ray Graham has decent numbers this season - seven touchdowns with 622 yards on 162 carries for a 4.6 yards per carry average.  What will keep you up is when you discover that Graham has 4,427 career all-purpose yards, second in Pitt history to Tony Dorsett, despite missing four games last season due to an injury.

Defensive back Andrew Taglianetti has 19 tackles this season.  Below standard perhaps, but what will keep you up are his six career punt blocks.

Turnovers - Pittsburgh is 3-0 this season when forcing at least two turnovers.

Street and Shanahan - the Panthers’ leading receivers averaging 13.9 and 17.1 yards a catch, respectively.

Momentum - half of Pittsburgh’s wins have come in the last two games.

Boston College 1993 and 2002

Pittsburgh is scary

How does this team lose to Youngstown State and Syracuse then beat teams like (#13 at the time) Virginia Tech?  With their other three wins being against 3-4 Temple, 1-7 Buffalo and 2-6 Gardner-Webb, you can’t be over-intimidated by that resume.   So why are they scary?  Who knows what could happen with a team all over the place? And coupling that with a team with nothing to lose makes for a dangerous scenario.

Realistically, let’s face it, the Irish should win this game and win it convincingly.  Offensively, Pitt is fair at best.  Averaging just over 281 yards passing per game (ranking them 32^nd nationally) and being led by an experienced senior quarterback, the passing game should not be a huge issue for the Irish defense.  The rushing game offers even less of a threat, averaging just over 150 yards (ranking them 77^th in the nation).  Add to that game and against Notre Dame’s front seven, and those numbers  should only get worse for the Panthers.  The offense as a whole is averaging 29 points a game (ranking them 60th nationally).

Pittsburgh is a little more solid on defense, allowing 21.8 points a game (ranking them 33^rd nationally), but let’s keep that in perspective by looking at the teams they have played.  I suspect the Irish running game should do well this Saturday.  The offensive line is too big and strong and the backs are just too good.

Pittsburgh is the type of team which, when you look at the surface, just doesn’t make sense and you often fear what you don’t understand.  For example, for the season as a whole Pittsburgh has won the scoring battle in every quarter but the third, where they have been outscored 59-37.  Most teams who outscore their opponents three out of four quarters are better than 4-4.

Ok, now what?

I hate to do it, but Irish faithful we need to start looking at the big picture.  Make no mistake about it, the most important game of the season right now is the next game, against Pittsburgh.  We know our schedule and what that means, so let’s take a look at some of the other teams jockeying for position and what they are looking at as the season makes the turn toward the home stretch.

Alabama

#5 LSU (7-1)

#16 Texas A&M (6-2)

Western Carolina (1-8)

Auburn (1-7)

I can’t argue with the Tide’s number one ranking.  If I was a betting man, I would pick Alabama to go undefeated and stay atop the polls.  However, with two ranked teams and heading to Baton Rouge this weekend, they do have a couple of hurdles that could trip them up.  If they get past LSU and Texas A&M they have Western Carolina (how did this team ever get on their schedule?) and Auburn who is having an awful year just two seasons removed from winning the National Championship.  The final hurdle would come up in the SEC title game, but really no matter who their opponent may be I still like the Tide being #1 at the end of the regular season.  I almost would rather end up undefeated, be bumped out of the  National Championship game and win another BCS Bowl game to go 13-0 then lose to Alabama and finish 12-1.  On the other hand, the Tide have only played two ranked teams (one being #8 at the time, Michigan 5-3) so they may be a little overrated.

Kansas State

#24 Oklahoma State (5-2)

TCU (5-3)

Baylor (3-4)

#23 Texas (6-2)

The Wildcats are doing their best Oregon Duck imitation putting up a lot of points (ranked 5^th), averaging 44 points per game making them a hot pick to make the championship game.  With wins over three ranked teams, Kansas State has a solid claim to the number two spot.  They have two more games against ranked teams and three games against teams with winning records.  Although it’s unlikely, there are several opportunities for Kansas State to trip up.  The Big 12 does not have a conference championship, so if they can get through the regular season undefeated, I think the Wildcats will have a stronghold on the #2 spot.

Oregon

#17 USC (6-2)

California (3-6)

#14 Stanford (6-2)

#11 Oregon State (6-1)

The Ducks are ranked fourth in the BCS and second in the AP and obviously the BCS is still what counts.  Once again, Oregon is an offensive machine averaging 53.4 points a game, which is good enough for first overall in the nation and rushing for 330.6 yards a game, putting them third in the nation in that category.  However, it may be their schedule that ultimately does them in.  Opponents such as Arkansas State from the Sun Belt Conference, Tennessee Tech, a 2-6 Washington State, and a 1-7 Colorado, the Ducks’ big wins don’t look all that impressive.  To finish the season undefeated, Oregon needs to beat a 17^th ranked USC team with something to prove after last week’s loss to Arizona, a 14^th ranked Stanford team and an in-state rival game against 11^th ranked Oregon State.  If the Ducks get through that gauntlet, they will have to get a win in the PAC 12 championship game to stay undefeated.