Monday, October 29, 2012

Ok, now what?

I hate to do it, but Irish faithful we need to start looking at the big picture.  Make no mistake about it, the most important game of the season right now is the next game, against Pittsburgh.  We know our schedule and what that means, so let’s take a look at some of the other teams jockeying for position and what they are looking at as the season makes the turn toward the home stretch.
Alabama
#5 LSU (7-1)
#16 Texas A&M (6-2)
Western Carolina (1-8)
Auburn (1-7)
I can’t argue with the Tide’s number one ranking.  If I was a betting man, I would pick Alabama to go undefeated and stay atop the polls.  However, with two ranked teams and heading to Baton Rouge this weekend, they do have a couple of hurdles that could trip them up.  If they get past LSU and Texas A&M they have Western Carolina (how did this team ever get on their schedule?) and Auburn who is having an awful year just two seasons removed from winning the National Championship.  The final hurdle would come up in the SEC title game, but really no matter who their opponent may be I still like the Tide being #1 at the end of the regular season.  I almost would rather end up undefeated, be bumped out of the  National Championship game and win another BCS Bowl game to go 13-0 then lose to Alabama and finish 12-1.  On the other hand, the Tide have only played two ranked teams (one being #8 at the time, Michigan 5-3) so they may be a little overrated.

Kansas State
#24 Oklahoma State (5-2)
TCU (5-3)
Baylor (3-4)
#23 Texas (6-2)
The Wildcats are doing their best Oregon Duck imitation putting up a lot of points (ranked 5th), averaging 44 points per game making them a hot pick to make the championship game.  With wins over three ranked teams, Kansas State has a solid claim to the number two spot.  They have two more games against ranked teams and three games against teams with winning records.  Although it’s unlikely, there are several opportunities for Kansas State to trip up.  The Big 12 does not have a conference championship, so if they can get through the regular season undefeated, I think the Wildcats will have a stronghold on the #2 spot.

Oregon
#17 USC (6-2)
California (3-6)
#14 Stanford (6-2)
#11 Oregon State (6-1)
The Ducks are ranked fourth in the BCS and second in the AP and obviously the BCS is still what counts.  Once again, Oregon is an offensive machine averaging 53.4 points a game, which is good enough for first overall in the nation and rushing for 330.6 yards a game, putting them third in the nation in that category.  However, it may be their schedule that ultimately does them in.  Opponents such as Arkansas State from the Sun Belt Conference, Tennessee Tech, a 2-6 Washington State, and a 1-7 Colorado, the Ducks’ big wins don’t look all that impressive.  To finish the season undefeated, Oregon needs to beat a 17th ranked USC team with something to prove after last week’s loss to Arizona, a 14th ranked Stanford team and an in-state rival game against 11th ranked Oregon State.  If the Ducks get through that gauntlet, they will have to get a win in the PAC 12 championship game to stay undefeated.

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