This week the Irish face the first – and probably the best (especially since Air Force beat Navy in overtime last week) - of two service academies this season. Air Force is one of the best running teams in the nation (ranked 3rd in yardage). Although their rank is not as high on their passing game (112th in yardage), when they do throw the ball, they can score. Brian Kelly spouted out a stat that one in six of their passes results in a touchdown. Air Force runs the option offense and is well disciplined and experienced with 14 seniors starting (Air Force has been to a bowl game in each of the last four seasons).
Ethan Johnson is in a boat with a sprained ankle. Against other teams I would not worry about it with the two freshmen Tuitt and Lynch as well as sophomore Kona Schwenke, but against the option you need more patience and discipline, which comes with experience. In addition, while Lynch is a beast, he may be a little too aggressive and over pursue against the option, and that can cost a defense big.
The offense needs to continue to bully defenses with both the run and the pass. Gray and Wood are a tough one-two punch to stop, and Floyd and Eifert can abuse defensive backs. The offensive line should be able to control the line of scrimmage, opening holes for the Gray and Wood as well as giving Rees plenty of time to find his receivers.
After the Air Force game, the Irish will have a bye week.
What to look for on Saturday:
The running game should be sound. I look for one back to be more dominant in terms of yardage than the other (probably Wood), but Gray could bust out for his signature game of the year allowing Wood to get fewer touches and a little more rest.
The defense may struggle early against the option and/or the zone offense Air Force runs. The defensive backs will be cheating up to stop the run and possibly get burned on some big passes (not to jinx him but I think Harrison Smith and his great game preparation will pay of in this game and he will stand out as a big defensive player).
Air Force Quarterback Tim Jefferson is and will be the bread and butter of their offense. Bob Diaco and his defense will no doubt have a game plan and the coaches will work with players to learn their keys, but come game time, the speed and excitement of the game can cause confusion. If all the defensive players read and react on their keys and don’t over pursue, the option is relatively easy to defend as it has the most clear reads. Each defensive player is assigned an offensive player to cover. The first challenge is reading the keys correctly and being able to follow the ball. The second challenge is sticking with your assignment and not falling for a trick and pursuing another defensive player’s assignment, leaving yours open. The final challenge, and the one I feel may be most difficult for the Irish defense, is patience and not over pursuing the play.
Prédiction: Notre Dame 34 Air Force 17
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