Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Heading to the Big House

Time to move on; time to move forward.  No better opportunity to forget about last week than taking on one of the biggest football traditions on one of the biggest stages (stadium capacity is 109,901).  Michigan has been playing football since 1879, eight years before Notre Dame fielded a team.  During that time the Wolverines have amassed 885 wins, 11 National Titles and 77 Consensus All Americans.  One of those wins came against the Irish on November 23, 1887, the first game Notre Dame ever played.  That is why beating Michigan in front of their home crowd at their first night home game in the school’s history would be so meaningful.  Michigan leads the all time series 22-15-1, including last year’s heartbreak loss, 28-24.
Both schools are shadows of their former greatness, both are in rebuilding (reloading if that term makes us feel better) modes.  The Irish are probably a year ahead of the Wolverines if for no other reason than Coach Kelly is in his second year in South Bend, while Brady Hoke is in his first year in Ann Arbor.  We know what happened last Saturday with Notre Dame,  Michigan on the other hand fared a little better beating Western Michigan 34-10.  Although I am disappointed and concerned after last week’s performance by the Irish and this is a big game for Michigan, I think the Wolverines might be ripe for the picking.
Michigan returns ten starters on offense and eight on defense.  The offense a little more well-rounded than last year, and is still centered on lethal offensive weapon Denard Robinson.  Robinson has worked on becoming a better passer to adjust to the pro-style offense his new head coach is putting into place.  After rushing for over 1,700 yards during his sophomore season, I am sure running the ball will still be an option, just not always the first one.  Last week, Robinson averaged 5.8 yards on eight carries totaling 46 yards (Robinson also went 9 for 13 passing for 98 yards).  Michigan used two running backs to carry the rushing load in Michael Shaw (averaging 13.5 yards a carry with a touchdown) and Fitzgerald Toussaint (rushing for 81 yards on 11 carries and a touchdown); this allowed Robinson to run the offense as opposed to being the offense.
Predictions for an Irish win. 
For Notre Dame to win on Saturday there are a few things that need to happen.   First and the most obvious is we need to stop the mental mistakes.  The offense can afford an offside call or two, but poor decisions that lead to turn overs and personal fouls will be a problem.  The offensive line should dominate the three-man Michigan front (especially in the middle) and take on the decent linebackers.   When Michigan does blitz to support their down linemen (and they will), Tommy Rees will own them with 5 to 15 yard passes.  Kelly will use his deep corps of fast receivers to throw multiple receiver sets at the slower less, experienced Wolverine defensive backs.  
On the defensive side of the ball, the defense needs to force Denard Robinson to throw more than run (although is short passing game has improved). Robinson did a good job sharing the ball connecting with six different receivers against Western Michigan.   If the defensive line holds their own in the trenches against a decent Michigan offensive line, the Irish linebackers and defensive backs should be able to use their advanced athleticism to handle their running backs and receivers.   The Notre Dame defense will also create some of their own luck and maybe even score.
Predictions for or a Michigan win.
Notre Dame will continue mental mistakes resulting in good field positioning for Michigan, and in addition, turnovers and penalties will continue, all of which result in points.   The Michigan defense will blitz and cover the pass to contain the Irish offense.
The Irish defense will not contain Denard Robinson from running wild and breaking the big plays.  The Notre Dame linebackers will not be able to cover the short passes. 
Notre Dame special teams don’t show up again.  Turk averages 30 yards a punt (and punts a lot).  Davis Ruffer misses field goals (especially easy ones).  Kickoff return does not get the offense into a good starting position and kickoff coverage allows big returns.
The Michigan players ride the hype of their first home night game with 110,000 of their closest friends cheering them on in a crazed frenzy.

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