Measuring Up.

Each year, high school football players are rated in every way possible.  Services and websites give players stars, call them blue chippers and rank them by position.  None of these systems guarantee success at the college level, but the more blue chippers a college team attracts, the more likely that some of them will live up to the hype.  We follow these kids for years, and after four years in college, did we even notice them?  Here is a review of some highly rated recruits that came to South Bend using ESPN’s 150 list.

2011

#15 Aaron Lynch; early results look good, a lot of playing time as a freshman (even some starts) and he still has an outstanding upside.

#36 Mathew Hegarty; good reports out of the practice squad with the good news being redshirted means four more years of eligibility and at 6’4” 290+lbs the offensive line’s future looks good.

#42 Ishaq Williams; New York State’s Player of the Year played in six games including the bowl game with limited action.  Although redshirting may have been better in the long run, the game time should serve him well in his sophomore season.

#77 Ben Koyack; Notre Dame’s tight end of the future had one reception for five yards this season.  Injuries at the tight end position forced Koyack into action earlier then I am sure Kelly wanted and burned a year of eligibility.  I am still looking forward to seeing how he turns out.

#90 Stephon Tuitt; saw action in eight games, including the Champs Sports Bowl at both defensive end and nose guard. looking impressive at both positions.  At 6’6” and nearly 300 lbs. with good speed and a year of experience, he has and looks as if he will continue to pay dividends.

#123 Anthony Rabasa; with a bit of a log jam at the linebacker position, we will have to wait and see on  Rabasa.

2010

#64 Louis Nix III; after redshirting and working (and succeeding) in controlling his weight and conditioning, Nix had an impressive season showing that the potential most people thought he had was real.  If he keeps on working hard and developing, he will be a true force in the middle of the defensive line.

#62 T.J. Jones; god-son of Irish legend Raghib “The Rocket” Ismail, Jones has two years of game experience and has had moments of greatness.  Listed at 6’0” he may be closer to 5’11” and needs play more consistently for him to develop into his potential.  He has paid of for a young player and will have two years to be more of a star player.

2009

#2 Manti Te’o; from day one Te’o lived up to the hype and has now pledged to come back for his fourth and final year.  Manti has been a great fit for the Irish on and off the field.  When it is said and done he will be one of if not the best linebacker in Notre Dame history.

#31 Tyler Stockton; with two years of eligibility left and behind younger talent, Stockton will probably fall short of overall career expectations.  He was redshirted his freshman year and saw more (although limited) action in his sophomore year than his junior year.

#40 Shaquelle Evans; transferred to UCLA after seeing decent game action during his freshman year.

#68 Chris Watt; with two years of experience (including 13 games as a sophomore) and two years of eligibility left after redshirting as a freshman, Watt has shown his versatility along the offensive line.  He has and will continue to pay dividends. 

#109 Zach Martin; after redshirting his freshman year Martin exploded onto the offensive line scene and has become one of if not the best offensive linemen the Irish have.  With two years of eligibility left he is definitely one of the best linemen recruited by the Irish in some time.

#112 Cierre Wood; although he shared running duties for most of the season with senior Jonas Gray, Wood was the premier back.  Between being thin at the running back position and the impressive performance (averaging 5.1 yards a carry over two years), Wood has become Notre Dame’s main man in the backfield for the next couple of years. 

#135 E.J. Banks; left the program at the beginning of his sophomore year.

2008

#22 Dayne Crist; for four years, Dayne was committed to the Irish and gave them all he had, unfortunately his injuries were his biggest roadblock.  Crist never lived up to his potential in South Bend but his career has another chapter to be written in Kansas. I wish him well and still would not be surprised to see him playing someday on Sundays.

#29 Michael Floyd; with little argument, Floyd in four years at Notre Dame was the best receiver in irish history.  He overcame personal/legal issues and a temptation to the NFL to come back for his senior season to show his character as well as his skill.

#81 Ethan Johnson; Ethan played in every game in his first three years then suffered an injury during the middle of his senior year that forced him to miss five games.  Johnson delivered at defensive end for the Irish and should be considered a recruiting success.

#85 Jamoris Slaughter; after redshirting his freshman year Slaughter has been an important part of the defensive backfield.  With another year to play next season, Jamoris has proved his worth and value at the college level.

#89 Jonas Gray; after three very disappointing seasons making him look like a recruiting bust, Gray had a remarkable senior season until a career ending injury (college career, his senior effort was so impressive to me he may end up as a free agent in the NFL next year) late in the season put an end to his revival.

#94 Darius Fleming; after four years of very effective and exciting play, Fleming’s departure will leave a big gap to be filled.  Although Darius was a very good player for the Irish defense, I think he could have been even better.

#103 Deion Walker; saw action in 5 games in 2009 during his sophomore year, had one catch for 15 yards and made some special team appearances. No game time since=obvious disappointment.

#105 Kyle Rudolph; with a year of eligibility left Rudolph entered the NFL as one of the best tight ends in Notre Dame history (fourth on ND list of receptions and yards for tight ends).  Even with only 2 ½ years and 29 games played on the field (missed seven games due to injury), Rudolph was recruiting gold.

#116 Steve Filer; solid back up at linebacker over the years and important to special teams, but has not lived up to an U.S. Army All-American Game participant.

#126 Braxton Cave; after a shaky start that saw his freshman year cut short with an early injury, Braxton has served consistently on the offensive line and should be back for a fifth year.  With a year to play, I will reserve judgment on if he was a high recruit success or not.

Day of Reckoning

On Wednesday, college football coaches all over the country will feel like the high school students they have been recruiting - not unlike an upperclassman who has asked someone out and is waiting to see if they show up on prom night.  For months they have seen seniors visit, commit, de-commit, promise to be a part of their program and then change their minds.  Things will probably go as planned for the most part, but it is those last minute decisions that keep things exciting.  Seemingly out of nowhere, wide receiver recruit Deontay Greenberry announced he was taking a visit to Houston this weekend.  I believe that the Irish have lost all the commits that are going to change their minds, leaving those who are undecided to give Notre Dame a last minute boost.  An all-world lineman recruit is rumored to announce Sunday afternoon, but until the letter of intent is signed, sent in and confirmed, anything can and will happen.

Currently there are three commits in South Bend as early enrollees - quarterback Gunner Kiel, defensive tackle Sheldon Day and defensive back Tee Shepard (it has always been thought Shepard’s cousin Greenberry would come as a package deal). 

Most of the verbal commits should sign Wednesday with little concern.  Among others I have little to no doubt will become members of the Notre Dame football program include lineman Jarron Jones, running backs Keivarae Russell and William Malone, defensive backs Elijah Shumate, C.J. Prosise, and John Turner, offensive linemen Ronnie Stanley and Mark Harrell, along with wide receiver Justin Ferguson.

Last year, Brain Kelly and his team pulled out some late signees who help push the freshman class to one of the best in the country.  There are several targets out there that could do the same for Kelly and his crew this year.  More realistic prospects include former commit Ronald Darby, wide receiver Nelson Agholor, wide receiver Davonte Neal, cornerback Armani Reeves and cornerback  Anthony  Standifer.  Some longer shots that could help propel this recruiting class through the ceiling include dual threat quarterback Devin Fuller, current Mississippi State athlete commit Will Redmond, cornerback  Donaldven Manning, monster 6’9” 330lb offensive lineman Zach Banner (my biggest hope)  and of course, Arik Armstead (who I could care less about).

There are also several players who are waiting until Wednesday to announce their college plans, who have shown little to no interest in playing for Notre Dame that I will be watching to see where they end up.  Of course, if any of these want to surprise us all by going to South Bend, that would be fine.  Many services have 6’6” 220lb 4.47 forty time wide receiver Dorial Green-Bekham, and the nation’s number one high school prospect  but the Irish are not in his top five (maybe the locking up of Gunner Kiel , fellow Army All-American will change things).  Offensive tackle Kyle Murphy will probably play in South Bend but most likely for an opposing team.  The same can be said about Andrus Peat (both players are 6’7” and five-star recruits).

Of course, feel free to visit any of the dozens of recruiting services sites to get your own perspective; Scout, Rivals, Max Preps, ESPN, Sports Illustrated and The Bleacher Report are just a few to start with.

As the Recruiting World Turns

I’ve been following the recruitment of Arik Armstead (and his brother Armond) for some time now and have come to the conclusion that the Irish should remove themselves from the process.  I realize we are dealing with teenagers who are trying to make one of if not the most important decisions of their lives and they may or may not be getting the right support or have the background to do this in a mature manner.  However, this process also gives an insight to a player’s personality and character.  I don’t know Arik Armstead, and from what I have seen and read there is nothing to suggest that he is a bad person. There is, however, a lot to suggest that he is a very good athlete (in both football and basketball).  He graduates early so he can enroll early into the school, which would give him a great jump start into his college career and an opportunity to join a basketball program now and play in spring practices.  By delaying the decision, those opportunities go out the window. 

This indecision is what also leaves me with some concerns with Gunner Kiel and his commitments from Indiana to LSU and now to Notre Dame.  Look at Amir Carlisle, who after a year at USC decided that maybe he made the wrong choice and came to South Bend.  One of the consequences is sitting out for a season and that’s what he will have to do, although he will get to work out and practice with the team for a year.  When a school recruits a student, I am sure they hope to have that player for 4 years (5 if redshirted) and they not only committed to the team but to the University as a whole, student and campus life, tradition and philosophy.  It is hard for a high school student (and their family) to look into the future and see how they fit into classes, campus life and the sports program. 

As for Arik Armstead, it may be time to cut our losses. If he chooses the Irish on February 1 (wasting his opportunity for early enrollment), fine.  If not, so be it.  I know his father Gus is looking forward to the parade of recruiters (ass kissers) coming to the house from schools in the running including Oregon, Washington, Auburn and Cal.  What confuses me is this family has been through this before with Armond and should have more insight to this process.   Along with the fact Gus has been involved in sports at a high level most of his life including running a company called ToTheHoop.com , which is a premiere basketball training service for pro athletes, college players, and select high school players; this family should be more in tune with the process than others.  Something with this tells me this may not be the right fit for the Irish.

There have been a lot of conversation and comments online regarding the Armsteads’ (more so Arik) recruitment, and most of it swings to the negative side.  One comment; “They’ve already received their best offers from the schools they visited. I don’t think Feb 1, or beyond, will see any change.” I would like to agree, but after the Cam Newton college stories (Arik’s father seems to be overly involved in this process), some schools may sweeten the pot.  That’s not anything I want the Irish to be involved in.  These young men being recruited need guidance and support from friends and families.  However, as I watched the U.S. Army All American Game there seemed to be a lot of people around these players while they made their declarations and I wondered who they were, how they influenced these decisions and why were they involved.

The following linemen are still up for grabs and whether they are sure things or long shots we should re-allocate time and effort to them: Andrus Peat, Zach Banner, and  Joshua Garnett

Quarterback Shuffle

I thought we were going to have a quarterback competition this spring looking toward the fall, and then Gunner Kiel decides to throw his hat into the ring.  I still feel Rees is the odd man out and Hendrix and Golson will be will be jockeying for starting time, possibly rotating game time.  I don’t see Gunner being a serious threat to start but spring practice as well as the Blue and Gold Game will make things much clearer.  Here is my take on the four contenders.

Tommy Rees

Tommy became a season savior in 2010 when he gave the Irish a spark in the Tulsa game (not enough to win), then went on to win his next four games including wins over USC and Miami in a bowl game.  In 2011, Rees came off the bench again after Dayne Crist could not deliver (many thought he should have started the season).  After seeing a true freshman lead the Irish with good stats; (completed 61.0 percent of his passes (100 of 164) for 1,106 yards and 12 touchdowns ... registered a passing efficiency of 132.70 ... recorded 17 completions of 20 yards or more ... completed 66.7 percent (40 of 60) of his passes on first down ... set a single-season freshman school record with 12 TD passes ... established a single-season freshman record in completion percentage), there were great expectations for his sophomore year.  Although Rees had some decent numbers (not in the turnover line) there was no growth.  Tommy has hints of greatness, but no more than last year, but even worse he was making the same mistakes.  I like Rees and would feel confident if he was in a back- up role and had to jump in, but there may be too many other options next year.  His tryout is over; it’s time to move onto the next level.  Tommy is an eight wins per season quarterback and at Notre Dame eight is not enough.

Andrew Hendrix

After redshirting his freshman year and seeing a potential log jam at quarterback, I thought if he did not get a chance to show what he could do on the field we may not see him after the 2011 season.  Hendrix got to play in five games this past season and played more than respectably when he hit the field.  At 6’2” 220 lbs. and with a strong arm that put zip on the ball, he showed he can run and pass.  With a year of time on the practice squad his first year, a year of challenging for on field playing time and three years of eligibility left, Hendrix may have a solid future in South Bend under center (probably more out of the shotgun).  Hendrix seems to have the ability and understanding to run Kelly’s spread offense.  He also seems to have the most experience of the potential spread offense quarterbacks in the stable.  As of today, I could live with Hendrix starting or at least sharing the load.

Everett Golson

Golson has been tagged by many Irish faithful as the heir apparent in South Bend.  He had an impressive four year high school career where he finished at number two in all time passing yards (11,643), even though he missed several games later in his career.  In 2011 Everett was selected as the offensive scout team MVP while retaining a year of eligibility.  Like Kiel, Golson came to South Bend early and picked up a semester of spring practice as well as an appearance in the Blue and Gold Game.  Golson is very athletic and many are excited about his running potential, but at an inflated 6’0” 185 lbs., his frame is not designed for heavy pounding.  With a year and a half of college football practice and four years of eligibility left, the sky could be the limit for him and no one is as excited as I am to see if he can live up to the potential and expectations.

Gunner Kiel

At 6’4” and 220 lbs., Kiel is already an NFL-sized quarterback.  He is said to have a high football I.Q. and will fit into Kelly’s offense very well.  I can’t believe that Gunner would go anywhere unless he thought he had a chance of competing right away for a starting job.  Generally my philosophy is if a freshman is not going to be a needed or integral part of your scheme, you should redshirt him, let him develop (even if he does not need it) and save a year of eligibility.  Overall, Gunner coming to South Bend is a great sign for the Notre Dame program and should send a message that the Irish are still relevant in the world of recruiting.

Although I am excited that Kiel is coming to South Bend and it is better to have too many good quarterbacks with potential than not enough (and competition is good for motivating players), I do have some concerns.  I don’t want whoever starts to be looking over their shoulder too much. Confidence is important, especially when dealing with teenagers playing on a national stage.  I have no problem pulling a quarterback; I just don’t want to see signal caller roulette from game to game.  I have to believe that with so many of these guys having so much eligibility left, all four won’t be here come 2013.  It is also important for Brian Kelly to handle this well for future quarterback recruiting because star high school athletes are not used to not playing or competition for playing time.

A Look Ahead

As February 1^st gets closer and student athletes from the class of 2012 decide where they will play their college football those from the class of 2013 are beginning their time in the recruitment process.  Although colleges follow the talents of some young players since their freshman year (and sometimes before) what players do on the field during their junior year is when they really grab their attention.  Many believe that the earlier you can target a player the earlier they can build a relationship, the earlier they can offer a scholarship and the earlier a player can commit, hoping that other schools back off; again, until the letter is signed more than halfway through their senior year they can change their mind.

At 6’6”, 305lbs and a 5.02 40 yard dash speed Steve Elmer is an offensive lineman that as a junior would easily grab the attention of most college programs.  During his sophomore season he posted strength numbers of a 515lb squat, 700lb dead lift, and a bench press of 275lbs.  Elmer, a Michigan native was recruited and offered scholarships from programs including Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Stanford Steve committed to Notre Dame on September 17^th 2011 (Michigan State Game Weekend).  By recruiting Elmer the Irish continue to make the offensive line a priority for the future.  Even though he has over a year to make visits and explore other options the fact that Elmer has been to South Bend four times during the 2011 season leads me to believe that he likes it and is becoming comfortable with the Notre Dame surroundings.  He has also used these visits to build relationships with recruits from the class of 2012. Elmer also seems to be a prototype Notre Dame student with a sophomore year 4.33 GPA, and a 31 equivalent to a pre-ACT and is active in the Catholic Church and student council.   Elmer was recently named to the MaxPreps 2011 U.S. Air Force Junior All American Football Team. 

To be sure the Irish are and have been hot in the trail of hundreds of high school football players from the class of 2013.  To my count the Irish currently have made offers to 38 juniors.

Irish Commentary

Here is my take on the latest Notre Dame Football news since the bowl game:

The Coaching Shuffle

In college football, assistant coaches often get better offers, sometimes head coaching jobs, and move on.  The head coach drives the ship for good or bad, and his philosophy and schemes steer everything from recruiting, to practice and game plans.  I like the coaches that have stayed and those reassigned, specifically Tony Alfred and Charley Martin who is taking over the offense.

Tyler Eifert Returning

With Michael Floyd’s departure, Eifert will be Notre Dame’s go to receiver next year, and all other receivers will be playing supporting roles.  This is okay with me, giving players at the wide receiver and tight end positions time to develop and grow.  The Irish have some decent potential within the team’s receiving corps but need some time to mature and develop.  Of course, there is the “it” factor that Eifert brings to the confidence for the offense.

Aaron Lynch named to FWAA Freshman All-American Team

Lynch played as good as anyone could have hoped for this season.  His numbers of 5 ½ sacks, 7 tackles for a loss, 14 quarterback hurries, 33 tackles and 2 pass breakups while playing in 12 games (starting 6) are impressive for a player who still has some growing to do.  Lynch will continue to develop physically and add strength (that is scary).  Lynch also has to continue to learn the position of defensive end at the college level, the sky is the limit.

USC running back Amir Carlisle transferring to ND

This is a nice PR story for the Irish.  Obviously, getting anything from USC is a good thing in South Bend.  Carlisle will sit out next season due to NCAA rules, but will be joining the team this spring for practice.  The story on Amir is that he is an elusive runner who can change direction and has a good cut back move; he does, however, have to increase his power.  He can take a year to get in the weight room and come out in 2013 and make an impact.

Brain Kelly contract extension

Kelly‘s contract was until 2014 now it will go to 2016.  Although I have visions (nightmares) of Charlie Weiss’s big extension deal early on, this is a little easier to swallow.   I do, however, hope there won’t be another extension until he at least gets to and wins a BCS bowl game, if not a National Championship.

Recruiting

Ronald Darby has apparently reopened his recruiting process.  So be it, it’s a crap shoot until signing day.  I would like Darby to end up in South Bend, but there are other fish in the sea (we will see on February 1^st).  Along those lines, Notre Dame got a verbal commitment from 6’1” 205 lb. defensive back Elijah Shumate.  In addition to being a solid pickup, he is also a Don Bosco Prep teammate of Irish recruiting target Yuri Wright and could give Notre Dame the inside track.

Exit Coaches

The changing and reassigning of college coaches in a big time football programs is not all that unusual.  From an on-the-field point of view, we will not see the results of this shake up until next fall.  The bigger and more immediate issue surrounds recruiting.  With national signing day less one month away, several of the departed coaches are the main link in relationships between high school student athletes and the University of Notre Dame. 

Ed Warinner left a hole at offensive line coach, probably going to join the staff at Ohio State.  Fortunately, the Irish are retaining a very talented and experienced group of returning players as well as a lot of potential in the younger ranks.  As far as recruiting responsibilities, Warinner was responsible for very important running commit William Malone and offensive lineman Ronnie Stanley.  I am pretty confident that both commits are solid and will fulfill their commitments on February 1^st.  In regards to uncommitted targets, there were some important and impressive players on his responsibility list that could sway another way with his change, including super wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham and everyone’s lineman wish, Andus Peat.

Also expected to end up at Ohio State is running back coach Tim Hinton.  Tim’s primary commit is 6’8” 313 lb. offensive lineman Taylor Decker, who has repeatedly said (prior to Hinton’s leaving) that he is very committed to being in South Bend next season.  Gunner Kiel and John Theus were Hinton’s lead studs of non-committed recruits, and I’d predict that both ships have sailed.

The biggest coaching loss in my opinion was offensive coordinator/quarterback coach Charley Molnar.  It showed in the Champs Sport Bowl and may play into the mind of offensively-minded recruits.