After Saturday

As the season continues and it’s evident that the BCS is gone and a top 25 finish is far from an easy goal we need to do what Brian Kelly has steered away from.  Kelly keeps saying we take it one practice at a time and one game at a time.  Well we need to start looking to the future and thinking what they may be.  At the very least what the rest of the season could hold.  Recruiting may be semi-stable at best; team moral looks good, but still lacking hunger.  Consistency is lacking on the field and from what I hear in practice.  Those are all issues for Kelly and his staff to look at fan we look at players and what can they do for us, and if not this year, the next.

Being an Irish fan for the last 20 years is like being an inmate going to the parole board.  Maybe next year if we do this if we get that, we wait, work hard, go into the room before the board and…wait till next year.  This gets old quick, unfortunately it doesn’t end quickly.  Obviously there are several games left, games to win, and a top 25 to crack if we finish strong enough.

Down the road we’ll look at the depth chart and see what players will be tops in 2012.  For now we need to focus on 2011 games.  First Navy, two loses to the Midshipmen cannot lead to a third, Notre Dame has never lost to Navy three seasons in a row, not to mention a lose to a 2-5 team would be terribly embarrassing.

Wake Forest is a team with a current 5-2 record with wins over team such as Boston College and Florida State.  The Demon Deacons are ranked 24^th in the nation in total passing yards a game.  This could be a loss for the Irish in Winston-Salem against a solid ACC team.

Although Maryland is a home game for the Irish it is being played at Fed Ex field in Maryland’s backyard.   I would be more confident of a win against the Terrapins than some of the other teams on the Irish’s remaining schedule.  Their one highlight is an opening game win against the Miami Hurricanes 32-24.

Boston College who plays Maryland this weekend is currently 1-6 and 0-4 in the ACC this season should be a win for the Irish.  However the excitement of two Catholic colleges squaring off will help the Eagles get up to play Notre Dame.

Finally Stanford, who will very likely be undefeated and ranked in the top 5 when they face Notre Dame on November 26^th.  With everyone’s All American and Heisman Trophy pick Andrew Luck at the helm the Cardinal will be a tough win if not impossible.  The good news is if the Irish can win the rest of their games until then a victory over Stanford could put them into the top 25 at the end of the season and put them into a meaningful New Year’s Day Bowl.

With five games remaining I would say a 4-1 finish is reasonable and realistic.  The Irish could however finish our 3-2 or worse thanks to their inconsistency and lack of a killer instinct.  The ultimate question is would 9-4 be a better finish then last season’s 8-5 heading into a bowl.  Of course it’s better but is that kind of improvement good enough.   Back to Kelly’s view let’s take it one game at a time, Navy.

Onward to Navy

My phone has rung several times since Saturday night but I am still waiting for it to ring with an apology from Brian Kelly, Dayne Christ, Manti Te’o, someone from South Bend.  I did see an apology from USC players and coaches for comments made Monday morning that I thought were fair.  I feel like a prisoner going to parole, each year thinking wait till next year, if we do this and if this happens we will be in the promised land.  The time comes, we go before the board and then denied.  Kelly’s saving grace with me is his frustration, the players although well spoken composed and classy don’t seem to be passionate enough, and like I have said before missing the eye of the tiger.

The one thing I have in common with and can agree upon with the players and coaches of the Fighting Irish is that it’s a one day at a time operation and we have to take it one game at a time.  So with that being said we’ll focus on Saturday’s game and the week of practice leading up to it, and by the way Kelly was talking after the Trojans game the players will not be happy with the tone of practice this week.

A team that will have plenty fire in the belly is Navy this Saturday.  Fire, confidence, discipline all the ingredients needed for a Midshipmen win and all that the Irish seem to be lacking.  We know they will be excited, well coached and run that option offense that Notre Dame can never figure out. 

Keys to an Irish win are simple.  The matchups are not complex, the schemes are straight forward and the game plan is as simple as 1-2-3.  All that being said we may have to wait until late in the fourth quarter to see a win.

Let’s start on defense; shut down the run.  Ok shutting down the run may be a bit much to ask, we need to at least contain the run game of the Midshipman.  Yes Ricky Dobbs is gone but they still have fullback Alexander Teich (just under 100 yards a game) and Quarterback Kriss Proctor (averaging 163 yards a game).  I realize this won’t be easy but that’s it, Navy is third in the nation in run offense (averaging 325 yards a game) and are still a losing record team on a five game losing streak.  Don’t worry about the passing game, there is none.

Offensively bully the defense, push them around at the line run and pass all over them.  Don’t turn the ball over and score when in the red zone. 

Expectations:

A beat down.  Both Wood and Gray both better redeem themselves with 100+ yard games each.  Multiple receivers with 100+ yard games and multiple touchdowns.  Bottom line it’s our offense beating on their defense and our defense stopping their run.

The good?, the bad and the ugly.

The good; the helmets were very nice.  That’s about it.  I guess I could throw in George Atkinson’s 96 yard kickoff return for a touchdown.

The bad and ugly consumed the rest of the Irish night.  It just looked bad - bad tackling, bad timing, bad play calling, bad execution, bad, bad, bad.  The first quarter set the tone and was a prelude to the rest of the evening.  For crying out loud, I swear I saw Tommy Rees trying to run the option. 

Defensively, we appeared outmatched in talent, speed, power and coaching.  Receivers were wide open with defenders yards away, allowing significant yards after the catch.  The defensive line looked as though they were the offensive line; they would engage the Trojans’ offensive line and fight for the line of scrimmage, not trying to shed the blockers to make tackles, let alone putting any pressure on the quarterback (which was needed for a chance at a win).   By not stopping the run (not even close), it obviously opened the passing game.

Brain Kelly has got to be going out of his mind, although I don’t think he will be out of a job.  I know he is frustrated, apparently primarily with Tommy Rees.  He made it very clear after the game that the blame belongs on the players’ shoulders.  I don’t disagree, however, after what I saw last night there is more than enough blame to go around.  When Rees came out of the game due to injury I did expect Crist to come in, but at the goal line (which if Notre Dame punched it in it would have been tied at 17), I expected Hendrix.  Kelly went with Dayne who fumbled the snap, resulting in six points the other way, making the USC lead 24-10.

Like most games, the numbers don’t lie, and here are some that tell the tale.  29 rushing and 16 passing first downs for the Trojans compared to 17 and 5 for the Irish (and two USC  first downs were courtesy of Notre Dame penalties).  219 net rushing yards for USC compared to 41 for Notre Dame (averages of 5.0 to 2.9 per carry).  Time of possession favored USC 39.41 to 20:19, including a mismatch of 12:36 to 2:24 in the fourth quarter).  The one-two punch running combo was closer to a one-two dance step. Wood had 5 net yards and Gray had 38 (25 on one run).  Two other bad numbers – two lost fumbles and zero passing touchdowns.

So where are we?  We knew we were not as talented as the likes of LSU, Alabama and Oklahoma State, but now there is no doubt we don’t even belong in the top 25.  So what is the silver lining? We could end the year with four losses (best mathematical scenario assuming we are no match for Stanford), which is an improvement from five last season, and with four loses what kind of bowl are we looking at?  Last year’s match up with Miami was as good as it gets due to the history and rivalry with the Hurricanes.  

By the way, I’m sure the recruits in South Bend Saturday night were not impressed.

In closing, because I can’t continue to think about this game any longer, let’s say something positive.  Sunday morning I ran into a fellow Notre Dame fan who is happy with the direction of the Irish and Kelly.  To put things in perspective, the fan’s last name is Pitts, so he probably should think positive things.