The keys to the right win.

As I mentioned earlier in the week, Notre Dame not only needs a win, but a BIG win.  If they are the team we hoped for before the season started and the team we now think they are becoming, they need to blow out this Purdue team.   Of course, we will take a 14 – 10 win (if we lose, we will be below 500, a win puts the Irish over 500), but how much real confidence can be gained?  With that being said, here are the keys needed for a big win.

·         Two running backs with a combined 200+ yards.  Although the Purdue defense is bulky in the middle and designed to stop the run, this would be a statement for the offensive line. 

·         Michael Floyd with 100+ yards receiving with at least two touchdowns.  Although he may be double covered and the defense may be focusing on him, he is that good of a receiver and after the last game, he and Rees need to show it.

·         Tommy Rees needs to limit his turnovers to one.  It should be none but looking at his turnover numbers (6 interceptions and 3 fumbles), one would be pretty good.  Tommy also has to get receivers other than Eifert and Floyd more involved.

·         Theo Riddick and Tommy Roma need to have “breakout” games.  Neither one needs a 100+ yards receiving or a touchdown, but they should get at least 3-5 catches each.

·         David Ruffer CANNOT miss a field goal, no matter the distance.

·         Punt returns need to average better than .8 yards per return.  Since we already have a kickoff returned for a touchdown, a punt return for a TD would be nice.

·         The defensive secondary needs at least one interception.  Overall the defense needs one (if not multiple) turnovers.  The Irish defense also needs to have a multiple sack game (2 or more), preferably from the defensive line.

·         The Irish need to lead from the opening kickoff to the final gun.

The one exception to this need for a 49-0 win is if the Irish are up big early, pulling the starters and giving them a rest while getting some of the younger players and backups some real game experience.  However, I would still demand a 14-17 point win.

A look towards Purdue

This week’s opponent, Purdue, won its last game 59-0, compiling 627 total yards of offense.  It was a fairly balanced attack with 393 yards rushing and 234 passing (Purdue is a run first team).   They dominated their opponent statistically; 33 first downs to 9 and their 627 yards on offense to their opponents.  Coming back down to earth, it was against Southeast Missouri State.  The week before that, Purdue lost to Rice 24-20 and squeaked by Middle Tennessee 27-24 in their first game of the season (and they held on by blocking a field goal attempt as time ran out).

With a massive offensive line and a confident backfield, look for the Boilermakers to run the ball against the Irish’s three down linemen and take their chances with their talented linebackers.  In last week’s blowout, Purdue was able to get their younger and backup running backs some work coming out of the backfield.  Purdue’s offense averaged 7.4 yards per carry last week using eight different rushers (not counting quarterbacks).  Purdue’s two quarterbacks spread the ball in the passing game as well distributing passes to eight different receivers. 

I feel confident that our offense could put up big numbers against their defense, but I am not confident that they will.  If Middle Tennessee can gain 330 yards in the air, Tommy Rees and his receiving corps could have 600 (they won’t but they could).  After you get past the defensive tackle and nose guard, size is not on the Boilermakers’ side.

Make no mistake about it, this is an instate rivalry going back to 1896 and 82 games.  And just like every other road game, teams and their fans see an opportunity to play the Irish as an opportunity to win and make a name for themselves.  A win against Notre Dame helps with in state recruiting and of course it’s a lot easier to get alumni to donate after beating the boys from South Bend.

Going out on limb, I feel confident the Notre Dame will leave Purdue with a win.  My concern is not the win but the play.  The Irish need what some would call a “slump buster.”  Even with back to back wins, Notre Dame is not firing on all cylinders.  Our boys need to build confidence; they need to go out and beat this team like they stole something.  Not a couple of good plays, but career type games by key players, no turnovers, something like 49 -0.

I know Brian Kelly doesn’t care about style points and says he would rather be out-coached and win ugly then gain 500+ yards of offense and lose.  Why can’t we have style points and win?  When I listen to Kelly talk he is a little too optimistic for me right now, or at least a little too easy on some of his players.  It may be what he does in front of cameras.  Maybe he’s giving the team the Lou Holtz treatment behind closed (locker room) doors.  I hope so.

UGLY

On the way home from Shamrock Jack’s after the game, the Rolling Stones were on the radio and Mick Jagger put things in perspective - “You can't always get what you want but if you try sometimes you might find you get what you need”.   The Irish got the win but it was ugly.  I have never been so upset and frustrated after a Notre Dame win.  Last year in a game like this, one they should have won relatively easily, I said that the Irish are playing to the level of their opponents, but on Saturday they were just bad.  Not to take away anything from Pittsburgh; they had a great game plan and played well.

There were some good plays, like Jonas Gray’s big touchdown run, but I wouldn’t say he had a great game.  The score itself was ugly..15-12 just sounds awkward.  Notre Dame’s first touchdown was off of a one play drive that took all of 14 seconds.  I was glad to have the points but flashes of greatness don’t beat real good teams.  After Gray’s 79-yard TD run he only gained five more yards on two more carries.

The only two players I would say had a good game were Wood and Eifert.  Wood dropped his average, running the ball 23 times for 96 yards, but his running showed heart and effort, something I don’t see in many Irish players.  Cierre gained that extra half yard needed several times on Saturday, thanks to his effort and toughness.

Eifert had eight catches for 75 yards and one very big touchdown.  Not only was the touchdown impressive and needed, but his play on that drive, getting popped in the kidney/ribs and staying in the game put the offense on his shoulders.

I am starting to second guess some of Brian Kelly’s coaching.  He opens his post game press conference by saying “Well, good win for us.” Really? Good win?  He made it sound as if it was resiliency and patience that won this game. He patted himself on the back for making second half adjustments.  What adjustments?  His underwear?   Kelly says, “I like the way we compete.” Does he also like mediocrity?

I’ll admit there was no quit in this team but there was no killer instinct either.  Brian Kelly talked to his team at halftime and after the game about the will to win.  I saw a desperation (to be fair by both teams) not to lose.  There were a lot of guys who had good plays: Gray (obviously), Ben Turk (47 yard punt/good but not great), Shembo (sack), Tuitt (nice tackle at the nose), Floyd (fantastic first catch) Atkinson (36 yard kickoff return).  There needs to be more consistency and better mental play and execution (8 for 87 yards).  In the first half the Irish had a fumble, an interception and a missed field goal.

Grades:

Quarterback: C, I thought Rees might actually get pulled.  He needs to stop turning the ball over.

Running Backs: C+, Wood needs to be the 100 yards rusher, Gray needs more touches and Atkinson needs to get some time.

Receivers: C-, Some of this is on Rees and the play calling.

Offensive line: C, Stop the penalties, be more consistent and be the talent on the field they are on paper.

Defensive line: C, Solid at the line of scrimmage, the D-line needs to get more pressure on the quarterback, they should get some credit for the linebacker sacks.

Linebackers: B, Better pass protection this week, good pressure on the quarterback and decent job stopping Graham.

Defensive backs: C-, Still subpar, turning their backs to the ball.

Special teams: D+, Missed field goal, one punt return for 1 yard, if not for Atkinson’s returns and Brindza’s kickoffs, it’s an F

Coaching: D, this team is still not mentally prepared for games.